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History and Diversity Clash in EURO 2024 Group D!

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History and Diversity Clash in EURO 2024 Group D!
France and the Netherlands faced off in a qualifying match yesterday. These two nations, both past European Cup champions, met once again in the final round of EURO 2024, where they are grouped in Group D. While their past victories suggest a strong partnership in football history, the competition this time is fierce. Despite their storied histories, France and the Netherlands will have to navigate a challenging path to the knockout stages. They must contend with Poland and Austria, both formidable opponents. These two countries, which share red and white flags, are well-prepared and eager to vie for top positions in the group, possibly even claiming the championship or second place.

France and Netherlands players in action during a EURO 2024 qualifying match.

Group D of EURO 2024 promises a tough battle, with no weak teams. France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Austria all possess significant strength, ensuring no easy victories. This contrasts sharply with Group B, where Albania appears to be the weakest link. In Group D, every team relies on players of diverse heritage, with the exception of Poland. Since their European Cup debut in 2008, Poland has consistently fielded a squad without players of immigrant descent. In contrast, France, the Netherlands, and Austria feature many players from diverse backgrounds.

France’s current squad is a testament to its multicultural strength, with players like reserve goalkeeper Brice Samba from Congo, Alphonse Areola of Filipino descent, Ferland Mendy with roots in Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, Eduardo Camavinga born in Angola, and Kylian Mbappe of Algerian descent. Similarly, the Netherlands boasts a roster filled with players of diverse ancestry, including Virgil van Dijk and Gio Wijnaldum from Surinamese heritage, Cody Gakpo of Togolese descent, and Tijjani Reijnders and Ian Maatsen with Indonesian roots. Austria also features players of various backgrounds, such as Marko Arnautovic of Serbian descent and Kevin Danso of Ghanaian origin. However, they will miss the talents of David Alaba, a player of Filipino descent, who is sidelined due to an ACL injury.

France and the Netherlands are favorites to progress to the last 16, given their impressive track records and histories. France, in particular, has won the EURO twice, though their last victory was in 2000. That year, a star-studded French team featuring Thierry Henry, Djorkaeff, Lilian Thuram, Dugarry, Zidane, and current coach Didier Deschamps triumphed over Italy in the final, thanks to David Trezeguet's golden goal.
Since then, France has not reclaimed the championship title, even as hosts in the 15th edition. Les Bleus, former champions, fell to Portugal. The Netherlands, on the other hand, has only one European Cup victory to their name, achieved in 1988 in Germany. That year, the Netherlands triumphed over the Soviet Union in the final under the guidance of their total football pioneer, Rinus Michels, with Ronald Koeman, the current Dutch coach, playing a crucial role in that victory.

According to Opta, France has a 92.9% chance of advancing from this group, while the Netherlands has a 76.2% chance. Despite these high percentages, it doesn't mean France is invincible. Although they've reached the World Cup final twice in a row, winning one, their recent form raises concerns. In their last five matches leading up to the EURO, Didier Deschamps' squad has only secured two victories, both against lower-ranked teams like Luxembourg and Chile. They failed to beat Greece and struggled against Canada in a June 9th friendly, where Canada’s high-intensity play posed significant challenges. This isn’t the first time France has had difficulties against high-pressure teams, as evidenced by their 2-0 defeat to Germany.
If France struggles to score against Canada, how will they fare against Austria? Austria's playing style closely mirrors that of Germany, especially under their coach Ralf Rangnick, the pioneer of gegenpressing. Rangnick has seamlessly integrated his high-pressure, high-energy tactics into the Austrian squad. His task is made easier by the fact that many current Austrian players have experience with Red Bull-affiliated teams, such as Marcel Sabitzer, Baumgartner, Seiwald, Laimer, and Flavius Daniliuc. These players are already well-versed in Rangnick's philosophy.
The former Manchester United coach, Ralf Rangnick, previously served as the sporting director for Red Bull teams. After his appointment, Rangnick made an immediate impact by leading Austria to a 3-0 victory over Croatia in his first match. Since then, Austria has enjoyed more wins than losses under his leadership. Out of 22 matches, Rangnick’s Austria has suffered only five defeats. Their most recent loss came over seven months ago, a 3-2 defeat to Belgium on October 13, 2023, in the EURO 2024 qualifiers. Historically, Austria has lost to France 13 times but has also secured 9 victories against Les Bleus. Notably, in their last three encounters, France has failed to defeat Austria.

Can Austria beat France? Some might see this question as doubting France’s capabilities and underestimating the Netherlands. While the Netherlands is indeed the second strongest team in the group and capable of defeating France, they were beaten by France twice in the qualifying rounds. The Netherlands, though strong, raises doubts about their potential to advance far due to the number of new faces in their squad. The three goalkeepers selected by Ronald Koeman—Verbruggen, Bijlow, and Flekken—have never played in the EURO before. Similarly, the attacking lineup, including Xavi Simons, Brian Brobbey, and Steven Bergwijn, lacks experience from the previous edition of the tournament.
The Netherlands will also be without Frenkie de Jong. Despite his injury, Barcelona insisted on playing him, resulting in a severe condition that sidelines him for the tournament. This has understandably angered Ronald Koeman. De Jong has been the linchpin of the Dutch team, and his absence leaves a significant void. To compensate, Koeman has called up Tijjani Reijnders to fill De Jong’s role. Additionally, with a versatile full-back like Denzel Dumfries, Koeman plans to adjust his traditional 4-3-3 formation to a three-back setup, inspired perhaps by Inter Milan's success with this tactic. However, success at the club level doesn’t always translate to the international stage, as seen when the Netherlands lost to Germany with a three-back formation.

In contrast, Poland's switch to a three-back system under Michal Probierz has shown promise. Since Probierz took over in September 2023, the team, nicknamed the Eagles, has remained unbeaten. Probierz, previously the coach of Poland’s U-21 team, succeeded Fernando Santos as head coach of the senior team. Santos, the former Portugal coach, struggled with Poland, culminating in a 2-0 loss to Albania. Under Probierz’s leadership, Poland secured their spot in EURO 2024 by defeating Wales in the play-offs.
However, Probierz's appointment was not without controversy. Accusations surfaced that he leveraged insider connections to secure the coaching position, reportedly having a close relationship with the President of the Polish FA, Czeslaw Michniewicz. Known for his forthright nature, Probierz once openly criticized Xavi for not utilizing Lewandowski effectively. Despite the controversy, Probierz faces the challenging task of leading a transition within the Polish national team.
Probierz emphasized integrating young talents with veterans in the Polish squad. Alongside relying on Lewandowski, he has called up younger players like Karol Swiderski and Krzysztof Piątek. Poland has historically struggled against France and the Netherlands, losing nine times to each. However, they have managed three victories over these powerhouses. Despite these challenges, Poland's chances of advancing to the last 16 are estimated at 45%, slightly lower than Austria's 51.1%.


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