EURO 2024, set to take place in Germany, will be a farewell event for several football legends, notably Cristiano Ronaldo. At 39 years old, it's unlikely that Ronaldo will be leading the Portuguese national team in the 2028 edition, when he will be 43. Therefore, Ronaldo is expected to give his all in what may be his last major tournament with Os Navegadores. He will undoubtedly push himself to the limit to take Portugal as far as possible. However, this will not be an easy task. Portugal faces tough competition in Group F, and their opponents will not make it easy for them to advance. So, will Portugal still be the favorite in Group F? Let's analyze the situation.
Portugal finds itself in Group F along with Turkey, Georgia, and the Czech Republic. On paper, Portugal is the clear favorite to top the group. However, the other three teams should not be underestimated. Each of them has shown impressive performances recently.
Take Turkey, for instance. After a disappointing EURO 2020, Turkey looks more formidable than ever for 2024. Under the guidance of Vincenzo Montella, they topped Group D in the qualifiers, even while competing against strong teams like Croatia and Wales. They also demonstrated notable offensive prowess, scoring 14 goals, with Arda Guler and his teammates leading the charge.
Similarly, the Czech Republic had a strong showing in the qualifiers, suffering only one defeat. They finished second in Group E, tied with Albania on 15 points but falling short due to the head-to-head record.
Georgia, on the other hand, secured their spot through the Nations League playoffs. Coached by Willy Sagnol, they reached EURO 2024 by defeating Greece in the play-off final, marking their debut in this prestigious competition.
As for Portugal, their journey to EURO 2024 has been remarkable. Bruno Fernandes and his teammates dominated their qualifying group, winning all ten matches against teams like Luxembourg, Iceland, and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Given these dynamics, Portugal's path to the final round will be challenging, but their dominant performance in the qualifiers suggests they are well-prepared for the competition ahead.
In the qualifying round, Roberto Martinez's squad excelled, scoring 36 goals in ten matches. This impressive average of 3.6 goals per game was the highest in the qualifiers. Portugal frequently secured dominant victories, such as a 9-0 win against Luxembourg and a 5-0 triumph over Bosnia. Defensively, the Selecao das Quinas also shone, achieving nine clean sheets and conceding only two goals, both in a match against Slovakia in mid-October. Given these performances, it’s no surprise that Portugal is heavily favored in Group F. According to Opta, they have a 93.6% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 9.2% chance of winning the tournament. Since 1996, Portugal has consistently advanced from the group stage, reinforcing their status as a top contender in this edition of the EURO.
Portugal's squad depth, especially in attack, sets them apart in Group F. Roberto Martinez has called up an array of star players, including Gonçalo Ramos, Rafael Leão, João Felix, Diogo Jota, Pedro Neto, and Bernardo Silva. Remarkably, Cristiano Ronaldo is also part of the team. Despite nearing 40, Ronaldo’s performance in the Saudi Arabian League with Al-Nassr has been outstanding, with 44 goals in 45 matches. His statistics defy his age, showcasing his enduring talent. Ronaldo remains the all-time top scorer in the EURO with 14 goals and has the most goal involvements since 1972, with 20 contributions (14 goals and six assists), doubling Michel Platini's record.
However, this will be Ronaldo's final EURO appearance. His remarkable record with Portugal is undisputed, but at 39, this edition marks the end of his era with the national team.
Portugal's squad this year appears formidable, with few weaknesses. The Athletic has acknowledged this, noting the difficulty in pinpointing any exploitable flaws. However, one concern stands out: Portugal's lack of experience against top-tier teams. During the qualifiers, they faced relatively weaker opposition, and their 2-1 loss to Croatia in a friendly underscores this issue.
Turkey is expected to be Portugal's toughest challenge. Under Vincenzo Montella, Turkey aims to replicate their 2008 success and reach the semifinals. The team is bolstered by talents such as Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Altay Bayındır, Orkun Kökçü, and Arda Güler, making them a formidable contender.
Additionally, the Czech Republic cannot be underestimated. Coached by Ivan Hašek, they remain unbeaten in 2024, winning four friendly matches, including a remarkable 7-1 victory over Malta and a 2-1 win against Norway. While their squad may not be as star-studded as Turkey's, the Czech Republic boasts key players like Patrik Schick. Despite missing the qualifiers, Schick is the Czech Republic's top striker, having scored five goals in the last EURO.
These factors suggest that Portugal will face significant tests from both Turkey and the Czech Republic in their quest for EURO 2024 glory.
Georgia might be considered the weakest team in Group F. As debutants, they also stand out as the only team to qualify for the EURO with a negative goal difference in the qualifying rounds. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will be Georgia's primary asset, having scored four goals in the qualifiers. Kvaratskhelia also led the qualifiers in dribbles, with 44 successful attempts.
When evaluating performances and player rosters, Turkey emerges as the most likely team to challenge Portugal's dominance in the group stage. The Turkish national team is particularly motivated to redeem themselves after a disappointing showing in EURO 2020, where they finished last in Group A without a single victory.
However, Turkey's performance leading up to EURO 2024 has been less than stellar. They have not won any of their four friendly matches, including a heavy 6-1 defeat to Austria. This poor run could affect their confidence heading into the tournament. If coach Vincenzo Montella cannot boost his players' morale, Turkey might struggle, leaving the door open for the Czech Republic to claim the second spot in Group F. The Czech team has shown far more consistent performance and could capitalize on Turkey's potential shortcomings.
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